The future performance of tobacco, especially the cigarettes category, is highly dependent on illicit trade volumes over the forecast period. If the Iranian government can control borders and the retail environment then volume sales are expected to continue their healthy growth as a result of the improved availability of products and strong desire among the young Iranian generation for cigarettes. However, if the control of illicit trade relaxes, as happened in 2010, then there will likely be major declines in legitimate sales. There is also a strong possibility that Philp Morris will enter the Iranian market, which would totally change the current competitive environment due to popularity of this American player among Iranian consumers.